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Data Access Register - full project summary

Application ID llc_0039
Project Title The Risk Prediction on Winter Respiratory Diseases and the Burden on Healthcare Systems: Pre-, During and Post-COVID-19 Pandemic
Lead Applicant Ruonan Pei
Organisation(s) Name(s) The University of Edinburgh
Approval Date 09/06/2025
Application Status Approved
Lay Summary

Winter respiratory diseases, such as COVID-19, flu, and respiratory infections, cause a significant number of hospital visits and deaths each year, placing immense pressure on the National Health Service (NHS), especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. This project aims to improve how we predict and prevent these diseases and identify the most at-risk residents and apply early actions to protect them. The project will investigate patterns of respiratory illnesses pre-, during and post-COVID-19 pandemic to understand how risk factors, such as age, smoking status, existing health conditions, vaccination history, and environmental factors (e.g., air pollution), affect hospitalisation rates. We will develop a prediction system by advanced machine learning algorithms to monitor patients who most likely require hospital care, emergency treatment, or facing serious health outcomes. With the assistant of this project identifying those most at risk, healthcare providers can offer earlier interventions, such as vaccinations, medication, and lifestyle advice, to help prevent severe illness. This research will also assist policymakers in making decisions about how to allocate healthcare resources efficiently, particularly in winter when hospitals are under the most strain. In summary, this project will help improve public health, reduce hospital admissions, and support a stronger, more resilient NHS.

Datasets Requested

LPS Data:

  • Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents & Children (ALSPAC)
  • 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70)
  • Born in Bradford (BIB)
  • English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA)
  • European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition – Norfolk (EPIC Norfolk)
  • Extended Cohort for E-health, Environment and DNA (EXCEED)
  • Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study (GENSCOT)
  • Millennium Cohort Study (MCS)
  • NIHRBIO_COPING
  • National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD)
  • TRACK-COVID Study (TRACKC19)
  • TWINSUK UK
  • Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS)

Linked Data Requested:

  • Geospatial
  • Demographics Civil Registration – Deaths
  • Cancer Registration Data
  • HES Admitted Patient Care
  • HES Accidents & Emergencies/ Emergency Care Data Set (ECDS)
  • General Practice Extraction Service (GPES)
  • Data for Pandemic Planning and Research (GDPPR)
  • COVID-19 Vaccination Status
  • COVID-19 Hospitalisation in England Surveillance System (CHESS)
  • COVID-19 Second Generation Surveillance System (SGSS)
  • COVID-19 National Pathology Exchange (NPEx)
Results & Impact